‘Hot Search Keyword’ Rank-Change Prediction

Dohyeong Kim, Byeong Ho Kang, Sungyoung Lee

http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2017.44.8.782

The service, "Hot Search Keywords", provides a list of the most hot search terms of different web services such as Naver or Daum. The service, bases the changes in rank of a specific search keyword on changes in its users’ interest. This paper introduces a temporal modelling framework for predicting the rank change of hot search keywords using past rank data and machine learning. Past rank data shows that more than 70% of hot search keywords tend to disappear and reappear later. The authors processed missing rank value, using deletion, dummy variables, mean substitution, and expectation maximization. It is however crucial to calculate the optimal window size of the past rank data. We proposed an optimal window size selection approach based on the minimum amount of time a topic within the same or a differing context disappeared. The experiments were conducted with four different machine-learning techniques using the Naver, Daum, and Nate "Hot Search Keywords" datasets, which were collected for 2 years.