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Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Scheme Based on Graph Neural Networks through Long- and Short-Term Time Pattern Learning
Jaeseung Lee, Sungwoo Park, Jaeuk Moon, Eenjun Hwang
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2024.51.8.690
As the use of solar energy has become increasingly common in recent years, there has been active research in predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation to improve the efficiency of solar energy. In this context, photovoltaic power forecasting models based on graph neural networks have been presented, going beyond existing deep learning models. These models enhance prediction accuracy by learning the interactions between regions. Specifically, they consider how the amount of photovoltaic power in a specific region is affected by the climate conditions of adjacent regions and the time pattern of photovoltaic power generation. However, existing models mainly rely on a fixed graph structure, making it difficult to capture temporal and spatial interactions. In this paper, we propose a graph neural networks-based photovoltaic power forecasting scheme that takes into account both long-term and short-term time patterns of regional photovoltaic power generation data. We then incorporate these patterns into the learning process to establish correlations between regions. Compared to other graph neural networks-based prediction models, our proposed scheme achieved a performance improvement of up to 7.49% based on the RRSE, demonstrating its superiority.
Zero-Shot Solar Power Efficiency Prediction Method Considering PCC-Based Climate Similarity
Dongjun Kim, Sungwoo Park, Jaeuk Moon, Eenjun Hwang
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2023.50.7.581
Thermal power generation is a power generation method that occupies a large proportion in Korea and abroad due to its low unit price. However, due to its disadvantage of emitting large amounts of harmful substances that can cause health and environmental problems, renewable energy is in the spotlight as an alternative power source. Among various renewable energy generation methods, solar power generation is receiving the most attention because of its advantages such as ease in maintenance. Various solar power generation forecasting studies are being conducted to improve the uncertainty of volatile solar power generation and ensure stability in power supply. However, existing studies have limitations in that they are only applicable when there is a sufficient amount of historical power generation data. Therefore, this paper proposes a solar power generation efficiency prediction method based on zero-shot learning that utilizes historical data of similar regions by concerning weather similarity to solve the cold-start problem, a problem that occurs in prediction when historical data in the target region are lacking. Comparison results revealed that the proposed method had better performance overall in the target area, with a one-hour-based method showing the best prediction performance among other criteria.
Design of Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction Model with Recurrent Neural Network
Hanho Kim, Haesung Tak, Hwan-gue Cho
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2019.46.6.506
The Smart Grid predicts the power generation amount of renewable energy and enables efficient power generation and consumption. Existing PV power generation prediction studies have rarely applied and compared recurrent neural network techniques that are superior to time series. Furthermore, in the reported studies, there is no consideration of the length of past data used for learning, leading to lowered prediction performance of the model. In this study, we used the embedded variable selection techniques to find the factors influencing PV power generation. Subsequently, experiments were carried out to insert various past data length into the recurrent neural networks (RNN, LSTM, GRU). We found the optimal prediction factors and designed a prediction model based on the outcomes of the experiments. The designed PV power generation prediction model shows better prediction performance compared to other factor settings. In addition, better performance based on the prediction rate is confirmed in the present study as compared with the existing researches.
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