Digital Library[ Search Result ]
Health State Clustering and Prediction Based on Bayesian HMM
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2017.44.10.1026
In this paper a Bayesian modeling and duration-based prediction method is proposed for health clinic time series data using the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM). HDP-HMM is a Bayesian extension of HMM which can find the optimal number of health states, a number which is highly uncertain and even difficult to estimate under the context of health dynamics. Test results of HDP-HMM using simulated data and real health clinic data have shown interesting modeling behaviors and promising prediction performance over the span of up to five years. The future of health change is uncertain and its prediction is inherently difficult, but experimental results on health clinic data suggests that practical long-term prediction is possible and can be made useful if we present multiple hypotheses given dynamic contexts as defined by HMM states.
Power Consumption Forecasting Scheme for Educational Institutions Based on Analysis of Similar Time Series Data
Jihoon Moon, Jinwoong Park, Sanghoon Han, Eenjun Hwang
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2017.44.9.954
A stable power supply is very important for the maintenance and operation of the power infrastructure. Accurate power consumption prediction is therefore needed. In particular, a university campus is an institution with one of the highest power consumptions and tends to have a wide variation of electrical load depending on time and environment. For this reason, a model that can accurately predict power consumption is required for the effective operation of the power system. The disadvantage of the existing time series prediction technique is that the prediction performance is greatly degraded because the width of the prediction interval increases as the difference between the learning time and the prediction time increases. In this paper, we first classify power data with similar time series patterns considering the date, day of the week, holiday, and semester. Next, each ARIMA model is constructed based on the classified data set and a daily power consumption forecasting method of the university campus is proposed through the time series cross-validation of the predicted time. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we confirmed the validity of the proposed method by applying performance indicators.
T-Commerce Sale Prediction Using Deep Learning and Statistical Model
Injung Kim, Kihyun Na, Sohee Yang, Jaemin Jang, Yunjong Kim, Wonyoung Shin, Deokjung Kim
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2017.44.8.803
T-commerce is technology-fusion service on which the user can purchase using data broadcasting technology based on bi-directional digital TVs. To achieve the best revenue under a limited environment in regard to the channel number and the variety of sales goods, organizing broadcast programs to maximize the expected sales considering the selling power of each product at each time slot. For this, this paper proposes a method to predict the sales of goods when it is assigned to each time slot. The proposed method predicts the sales of product at a time slot given the week-in-year and weather of the target day. Additionally, it combines a statistical predict model applying SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) to mitigate the sparsity problem caused by the bias in sales record. In experiments on the sales data of W-shopping, a T-commerce company, the proposed method showed NMAE (Normalized Mean Absolute Error) of 0.12 between the prediction and the actual sales, which confirms the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed method is practically applied to the T-commerce system of W-shopping and used for broadcasting organization.
‘Hot Search Keyword’ Rank-Change Prediction
Dohyeong Kim, Byeong Ho Kang, Sungyoung Lee
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2017.44.8.782
The service, "Hot Search Keywords", provides a list of the most hot search terms of different web services such as Naver or Daum. The service, bases the changes in rank of a specific search keyword on changes in its users’ interest. This paper introduces a temporal modelling framework for predicting the rank change of hot search keywords using past rank data and machine learning. Past rank data shows that more than 70% of hot search keywords tend to disappear and reappear later. The authors processed missing rank value, using deletion, dummy variables, mean substitution, and expectation maximization. It is however crucial to calculate the optimal window size of the past rank data. We proposed an optimal window size selection approach based on the minimum amount of time a topic within the same or a differing context disappeared. The experiments were conducted with four different machine-learning techniques using the Naver, Daum, and Nate "Hot Search Keywords" datasets, which were collected for 2 years.
Water Level Forecasting based on Deep Learning : A Use Case of Trinity River-Texas-The United States
Quang-Khai Tran, Sa-kwang Song
http://doi.org/10.5626/JOK.2017.44.6.607
This paper presents an attempt to apply Deep Learning technology to solve the problem of forecasting floods in urban areas. We employ Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which are suitable for analyzing time series data, to learn observed data of river water and to predict the water level. To test the model, we use water observation data of a station in the Trinity River, Texas, the U.S., with data from 2013 to 2015 for training and data in 2016 for testing. Input of the neural networks is a 16-record-length sequence of 15-minute-interval time-series data, and output is the predicted value of the water level at the next 30 minutes and 60 minutes. In the experiment, we compare three Deep Learning models including standard RNN, RNN trained with Back Propagation Through Time(RNN-BPTT), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The prediction quality of LSTM can obtain Nash Efficiency exceeding 0.98, while the standard RNN and RNN-BPTT also provide very high accuracy.
Bias-Based Predictor to Improve the Recommendation Performance of the Rating Frequency Weight-based Baseline Predictor
Collaborative Filtering is limited because of the cost that is required to perform the recommendation (such as the time complexity and space complexity). The RFWBP (Rating Frequency Weight-based Baseline Predictor) that approximates the precision of the existing methods is one of the efficiency methods to reduce the cost. But, the following issues need to be considered regarding the RFWBP: 1) It does not reduce the error because the RFWBP does not learn for the recommendation, and 2) it recommends all of the items because there is no condition for an appropriate recommendation list when only the RFWBP is used for the achievement of efficiency. In this paper, the BBP (Bias-Based Predictor) is proposed to solve these problems. The BBP reduces the error range, and it determines some of the cases to make an appropriate recommendation list, thereby forging a recommendation list for each case.
Event Cognition-based Daily Activity Prediction Using Wearable Sensors
Chung-Yeon Lee, Dong Hyun Kwak, Beom-Jin Lee, Byoung-Tak Zhang
Learning from human behaviors in the real world is essential for human-aware intelligent systems such as smart assistants and autonomous robots. Most of research focuses on correlations between sensory patterns and a label for each activity. However, human activity is a combination of several event contexts and is a narrative story in and of itself. We propose a novel approach of human activity prediction based on event cognition. Egocentric multi-sensor data are collected from an individual’s daily life by using a wearable device and smartphone. Event contexts about location, scene and activities are then recognized, and finally the users’’ daily activities are predicted from a decision rule based on the event contexts. The proposed method has been evaluated on a wearable sensor data collected from the real world over 2 weeks by 2 people. Experimental results showed improved recognition accuracies when using the proposed method comparing to results directly using sensory features.
An Effective Concept Drift Detection Method on Streaming Data Using Probability Estimates
In streaming data analysis, detecting concept drift accurately is important to maintain the performance of classification model. Error rates are usually used for concept drift detection. However, by describing prediction results with only binary values of 0 or 1, useful information about a behavior pattern of a classifier can be lost. In this paper, we propose an effective concept drift detection method which describes performance pattern of a classifier by utilizing probability estimates for class prediction and detects a significant change in a classifier behavior. Experimental results on synthetic and real streaming data show the efficiency of the proposed method for detecting the occurrence of concept drift.
MOnCa2: High-Level Context Reasoning Framework based on User Travel Behavior Recognition and Route Prediction for Intelligent Smartphone Applications
MOnCa2 is a framework for building intelligent smartphone applications based on smartphone sensors and ontology reasoning. In previous studies, MOnCa determined and inferred user situations based on sensor values represented by ontology instances. When this approach is applied, recognizing user space information or objects in user surroundings is possible, whereas determining the user’s physical context (travel behavior, travel destination) is impossible. In this paper, MOnCa2 is used to build recognition models for travel behavior and routes using smartphone sensors to analyze the user’s physical context, infer basic context regarding the user’s travel behavior and routes by adapting these models, and generate high-level context by applying ontology reasoning to the basic context for creating intelligent applications. This paper is focused on approaches that are able to recognize the user’s travel behavior using smartphone accelerometers, predict personal routes and destinations using GPS signals, and infer high-level context by applying realization.
A Path Prediction-Based Sensor Registry System for Stable Use of Sensor Information
The sensor registry system has been developed for instant use and seamless interpretation of sensor data in a heterogeneous sensor network environment. However, the existing sensor registry system cannot provide information for interpretation of the sensor data in situations in which the network is unstable. This limitation causes several problems such as sensor data loss, inaccuracy of processed results, and low service quality. A method to resolve such problems in the aspect of software is presented herein. In other words, an extended sensor registry system is proposed to enable the stable use of sensor information, even under conditions of unstable network connection, by providing sensor information with a mobile device in advance through the user path prediction. The results of experiments and evaluation are also presented. The extended sensor registry system proposed in this paper enhances the stable usability of sensor information as well as improves the quality of sensor-based services.
Search
Journal of KIISE
- ISSN : 2383-630X(Print)
- ISSN : 2383-6296(Electronic)
- KCI Accredited Journal
Editorial Office
- Tel. +82-2-588-9240
- Fax. +82-2-521-1352
- E-mail. chwoo@kiise.or.kr